OH MY AMAZING!!! Weird Al is so white and nerdy!!! You have got to listen to this. Weird Al has outdone himself — publishing his latest masterpiece called “White & Nerdy”. This guy is a genius.
I’m having trouble trying to figure out who’s my hero, Weird Al or the guy he’s singing about.
Gas prices are dropping! Woohoo! No complaints here. In fact, I’ve already begun to feel the weekly cost difference, and what a sharp contrast since the post I made a month ago about how insane prices had gotten. So, my question is this…
What happened?
First, let’s get the facts out of the way before I start asking about the “why’s”…
Here’s the curve…
Look at the dip on the end of that puppy, will you?! Gas prices (national average) are down $0.337 over this time last year, dropping $0.227 ($2.845 the week of 8/28 vs. 2.618 this week) in the last three weeks and almost 11 cents/gallon in the last week alone. Now it’s not like I can now afford that surgery I’ve always wanted, but still I say again… Woohoo!
So, the big question is why?
Well, supply and demand are constant. China didn’t see a major dying off of 100,000,000 citizens or anything. No radically new technology. There are only three factors… Politics, Speculation and Complacency.
Politics
Iraq is a mess. Iran and South Korea are sabre rattling. Good ole’ Putin and our friend Hugo down in Venezuela are still as much NOT our friends as ever. The big variable that’s changed … cease fire and UN troops in Lebanon. Do I think that really matters? No.
Yes, it adds to a sense of stability (or rather, detracts from an overall sense of instability), but it’s not making the 23-cent difference in the price of regular unleaded, is it?
Speculation
No other way to slice it, speculators drive the market. Traders get out on the floor and bid this stuff up as high as it can go — based on their belief they can capitalize on fear and a healthy dose of mob mentality. And when something goes right (Israel-Lebanon, as the world perceives it) and prices are already astronomically high (which they were), then people become hesitant to continually throw their lot in with the doomsayers and bet that prices will run up endlessly. And a correction occurs, as it is / has / will. And we get to drive to work a little cheaper. And some of the bolder in the (speculator) business are losing their shirts in the process.
Complacency
Here’s a big one. The American people (especially) just have short attention spans. Something like a war in Iraq gets on the radar only briefly. There’s a reason why the news media has to continually “drum up business” by bombarding us with the constant drama, death and destruction. And it even has to escalate. Otherwise, people will stop paying attention. As long as bombs aren’t dropping on their favorite Starbucks, people just cease to pay attention quick — if they ever paid attention at all.
And although this definitely applies to the huddled masses, they aren’t whom I’m talking about here. Really I think this ties back to the investors. The kind of complacency that goes hand-in-hand with a long-running war in our country lends itself well to the cold feet I described above. If the average investor doesn’t feel the immediacy of the doomsday predictions, then they get scared and start selling — or betting the other way. Without the riveting fear to keep them motivated, natural market forces will course correct. Which is why the slightest good news after a massive string of bad news causes such a correction.
Another Answer?
So, it that it? I’ve heard a number of more colorful theories, even including that since Oil Companies have come under scrutiny in the past month or so, they’re now afraid and dropping prices to get the heat off. And I have to say, as someone who very rarely buys into conspiracy theories, I don’t buy it. It’s interesting, but I just don’t think so. What do you think?
Unsatisfied
The problem is that I don’t see how the other three factors would have such an impact. >10% in 3 weeks? Am I underestimating the power of a natural course correction? Or of paranoia? Maybe so, but I’m curious what you think.
So that’s my question to all of you… “What do you think?” What’s driving prices down? Have I covered it, or am I missing something?
Technorati tags: gas prices, speculation, oil
And here’s where it gets controversial…
We’re in a long-running discussion about how to win the war on terror. Having talked about some of the easier steps we need to pursue (some of which the US is in fact pursuing), we turn our attention to a very challenging, but I feel necessary, idea. I would advise Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to declare Marshall Law in Iraq.
What would that mean?
The first thing would be shoot-on-site curfews. From 7PM to 7AM, if you’re caught outside your house, you’re dead. I know that’s extremely harsh, but saying that the person would be detained or put in prison or scolded harshly would simply render the approach totally ineffective. If it’s not harshly enforced, then might as well not do it. This is an extreme measure that an overwhelmed, threatened Iraqi government needs to implement (temporarily and only in key areas) to gain control of the situation.
So, you can’t come out of your house at night — period. Now, nobody can plant IED’s unless it’s in broad daylight. Nobody can move weapons around. The rats are either pushed into the sunlight (and rounded up) or locked up while it’s dark (and rounded up).
While the enemy is imobilized, the Iraqi army (backed up / supported by coalition troops) form a circle around the trouble spots (such as Baghdad) and work their way in. Every house is searched. Every weapon is confiscated. If you’ve caught sitting on top of a bunch of explosives or a cache of AK-47’s, you go to jail and are questioned. If a bunch of terrorists haul up in a masque and start shooting, we level the building from the air.
We simply can’t continue on the way we have. We have to take the gloves off. All this worrying about people getting hurt is hard to work with, because this is after all a war. The (horribly unfortunate) fact is that people die in war. If we do not fight this war to win it, then many more will die. And there’s no way to end this insurgency playing nice.
Meanwhile, while the military is performing sweeps of critical areas and rounding up the bad guys, the Iraqi police can then be trained without getting blown up (or otherwise attacked) every couple of days. The police force has to be effective, or it will be hard to come to a long term solution that involves peace and the rule of law. The state couldn’t remain militarized forever (absolutely wouldn’t want that), so it would be the stop-gap measure to create a stable enough environment in which to actually get the police force up to snuff.
The other aspect of marshall law would be to start locking down the borders. Particularly the border with Iran should be well-defended by the military (a great role for our military, btw — instead of being the ones on the streets of Baghdad, which we are less and less, but still). Start building a wall in a couple key places. But do what it takes to stop the flood of weapons and homicidal maniacs from Iran that are fueling the trouble spots. And don’t forget the intensive searches that go on at road check points and airports. Gotta stop the flow of weapons and combatants into the country.
Once Baghdad and other hot spots are pacified, marshall law can be lifted. But until then, either we’re going to fight this war to win it and take out the terrorists, or we’re already screwed and should just leave. Yes, some innocent poeple will be killed along the way. That’s regrettable. But it can’t be helped. This idea that war has no unfortunate casualties or unintended consequences is just crazy. It’s always been that way, and it always will.
If we’re at war, we’re going to have to fight to win. Otherwise, we’ve already lost.
Technorati tags: war on terror, iraq
It’s 9/11. The 5 year anniversary. Everyone is commemorating, remembering, honoring — even mourning anew. And I’m glad for that. I think we should remember, and I think we should be spurred on by that memory to be ever vigilant in the way we fight this war, deal with the enemy, etc.
But I wanted to take a slightly different angle on the anniversary of the attacks, and ask everyone a quick question…
Over the last couple days, I’ve experienced a number of people — from pastors to reporters — talking about the fear of being attacked again today. I’ve heard people praying that God would protect us. I’ve seen pundits and analysts and reporters alike wringing their hands. And I just don’t get it. So here’s my question…
Why does everyone assume everything’s going to happen in round numbers? Why did so many think the end of the world was coming in the year 2000 (why is it different from 1999 or 2001)? Similarly, why do people think that if someone were to attack us, that they would do it on the same day someone attacked us before? Isn’t 9/12 just a good a day. Or that it would be on the 5-year anniversary? Is that somehow different from the 4th or the 6th?
I know this is a minor question in the grand scheme of things, but everyone else is all over the “let’s remember” stuff. I would just be noise adding my thoughts. So, instead I’ll stake out this bizarre nook. Plus, I’m curious. Anyone willing to weigh in?
To what do you contribute this phenomenon?
Technorati tags: 9-11, terrorism, mob mentality
This weekend, I attended a Promise Keepers rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Promise Keepers is a movement of Christian men in America, dedicated to committing their lives fully to Jesus Christ to be better men, better husbands, better fathers, better neighbors, and so on. (For more info about PK, check out their website — especially the seven promises of a Promise Keeper.)
Seventeen men from my church attended with (I’d say) about 7000 other men from around the Midwest. We prayed and worshiped and invested our time together in understanding more fully what God calls us to as men in this world. Sounds pretty religious, and I guess it was, but here’s why I bring it up…
I’ve recently been engaged in several very interesting discussions with a friend of mine — who is an pagan priestess — about her beliefs. She’s strong yet kind, very conscientious, well-educated, and exceptional at what she does — a counselor in the public school system, evaluating children with special needs. She also a pretty fascinating person. She believes in magic and caring for nature, the basic goodness of people and in fact reincarnation. A little while back, she surprised me by explaining that she is put off by Christians because in a past life (many hundreds of years ago) she and a group of her “hearth sisters” were executed at the hands of an angry Christian mob.
Now I do not believe in reincarnation (the Bible clearly teaches that “it is appointed unto man once to die and then the judgment [before God]”). However, what most intrigued me about that conversation and the reason that I’m writing this blog entry is that this kind and generous person fears Christians. Obviously, she and I see the world very differently — believe very different things. But I’m struck repeatedly at how often she worries about offending me by talking about her faith or is nervous when I talk about Jesus or the Bible, because she deeply believes that so many who would claim the name of Christ would seek to viciously abuse her for her beliefs if they knew. So she’s afraid to be herself in front of a fundamentally Judeo-Christian culture.
This really bothered me — deeply. It’s just not right. Since when do people have to believe the same thing as I do in order to keep from being harshly judged by me? Why is it that so many so-called-Christians are so angry, so rude, so judgmental, so hurtful? Aren’t we called by Jesus to be peacemakers? Aren’t we called to be the ones who love those who are even unlovable? And certainly this woman, just because she believes something different than I do, isn’t unlovable. She’s actually pretty cool. I can assure anyone who would judge her for her faith that God loves her no less than He loves me, or you, or the person who would sit in the most radical judgment of her.
Then I went to the PK rally. We talked about unleashing the power of God in men’s hearts and lives — the theme of PK 2006 is “Unleashed“. Thousands of men, praising God, declaring that they will be the kind of man God calls them to be, boldly agreeing to follow Jesus – to be like Him. These men are the kind that would love someone even who harmed them, just as Jesus commanded. They’re the types that would defend this woman, were she to face an angry mob of judges — in this life or another. Not because we believe what she does, but because we defend the weak — not persecute them. We know that stoning someone or burning them at the stake isn’t at the top of the how-to-love-them list. God is her judge, just as He is mine. I just don’t possess that right, and I don’t want to. I’d much rather be her friend, and encourage her to seek the truth about the world — about who God is, and about who she is. I’d rather walk a journey with her than set her on fire. Don’t you think Jesus would have said the same thing?
Here’s a glimpse of how Jesus dealt with people who sinned against God’s law in John 8:2-11…
At dawn [Jesus] appeared again in the temple courts, where all the people gathered around him, and he sat down to teach them. The teachers of the law and the Pharisees brought in a woman caught in adultery. They made her stand before the group and said to Jesus, “Teacher, this woman was caught in the act of adultery. In the Law Moses commanded us to stone such women. Now what do you say?” They were using this question as a trap, in order to have a basis for accusing him.
But Jesus bent down and started to write on the ground with his finger. When they kept on questioning him, he straightened up and said to them, “If any one of you is without sin, let him be the first to throw a stone at her.” Again he stooped down and wrote on the ground.
At this, those who heard began to go away one at a time, the older ones first, until only Jesus was left, with the woman still standing there. Jesus straightened up and asked her, “Woman, where are they? Has no one condemned you?”
“No one, sir,” she said. “Then neither do I condemn you,” Jesus declared. “Go now and leave your life of sin.”
God is confident. Jesus wasn’t insecure in His position before the woman in this story any more than He is before my friend now. God knows the truth, and wants us to know it too — that nature and magic and reincarnation are not what the human soul needs. Rather, Christ’s death and resurrection make possible a relationship with a very real, all powerful, divine and loving God. That’s why we were created. That’s the adventure we’ve been called to. Many believe that, and many don’t. But anyone who wants to follow Jesus will love those who don’t give a rip about Him — just like Jesus does.
Today in church (The Vine), the entire service was about this very same topic. I thought about my friend for much of the service. If you’re interested, you can listen to Pastor Wiley’s message (17MB Windows Media), which did a great job talking about how we as Christians are called to love — even people way different from us. I’m also posting a song that our special music team did to close our service today, called “Instruments of Your Peace“. It’s old, and has that chant-like Celtic thing going on. And it’s really slow. But it’s beautiful, and it paints a much better picture of Jesus than self-righteous witch-hunters burning people at the stake.
For anyone out there who reads this and is confused about what Christians are supposed to look like, grab a Bible, open it to the book of John, and read. You’ll meet Jesus. And here’s the news flash… If somebody says they’re a Christian but doesn’t look anything like the Christ you read about there, then don’t believe them. It’s easy to call myself something, but it’s a different thing altogether to actually be something. Being a Christian means following Jesus. Period.
I want to see the power of God unleashed in our world. But this isn’t about witch hunts and ferreting out the evil-doers. God’s power will be shown most in the way His people stand out like sore thumbs … serving, loving, giving, investing in people … making the world a better place. And sharing the truth about who God is. I hope that the world can begin again to see Jesus when they look at Christians, because I think He’s been missing from the picture for far too long!
Technorati tags: jesus, christians, promise keepers, spirituality, avalon
I guess the BBQ food coma lasted longer than expected… Actually, work has just been insane. But I’ve carved out a cozy nook from which to bring you the next installment in my “How to win the war on terror in 10 incredibly difficult steps” rant…
The next major offensive on my list is in cyber space. There’s just no getting around the fact that this is the 21st Century, and with the dawn of the Internet age comes an entirely different style of combat. How many movies have you seen in which the local law-enforcement-challenged hacker is recruited (essentially by threat of life-long incarceration or being disappeared) into playing for the good guys and overthrowing the other even-more-evil other hacker? I could cite dozens (but I won’t). Well, add a dose of realism, and that’s essentially what I’m advocating.
In the same way that we need to pull out all the stops to get more native-Arabic-speaking spies into the game, we need to press the best and the brightest minds in computer science into service in the cyber war. Here are a couple concrete, immediate things I’d have them doing…
Seize Funds
First and foremost, we need to drain the bank accounts of anyone and everyone that’s funding terrorism. If Iran’s government is converting oil dollars to terrorism dollars, then lets hack our way into shutting that down. If the local mosque has a fund-raiser that dumps money into an offshore account, where Terrorist Joe can get to it, then drain the account dry. Not easy, but doable — assuming we’re willing to invest some hard work, creativity, technology and tax dollars. Theh icing on the cake would be bringing some of this cash back home to pay for this and other things I’m suggesting (such as alternative fuels research).
Now of course, we have espionage laws to consider and we have to worry about violating the national sovereignty of nations we might have to hack our way into. But we can deal with all that. As to the first part, these are not US citizens’ bank accounts we’re talking about, so we should have some latitude. And to the second, as long as we can keep the ever-willing-to-reveal-anything-to-anybody-no-matter-how-damaging-it-is-to-the-country media away from it, I vote we keep it a secret. Feel free to violate Saudi Arabia by hacking their state-run banks, as far as I’m concerned.
Mine Calling Patterns Data
If you’re thinking this sounds familiar, it is. This is exactly the NSA program we put in place after 9/11 to establish a database of calling patterns in the US and from the US to foreign interests. USA Today blew the whistle on the program earlier this year, claiming that it violates the almighty right to privacy (more important than anything but free speech and the right not to feel bad in America today), but I don’t really think it does. Here’s how it works…
Phone companies are ponying up their databases of call records to the NSA. These records do not include audio information or transcripts of the content of the phone calls — just that a certain phone number connected to another phone number at a certain date and time for a certain length of time. If the NSA discovers that a certain phone number is associated with a known terrorist or person of interest or someone for which a warrant can be issued to investigate, then they can map the number to a name, and figure out who that person is and who they’ve been talking to. The biggest function of having established this database is that the information is close at hand. If Joe, living in Cleveland, is found to be a terrorist, it takes hours to connect Joe to all the people he’s been talking to, not the days or weeks it used to (while the government solicits a bunch of records from the phone companies and rushes to analyze them).
This isn’t violating my privacy, or yours. So my phone records (which numbers were called from my house and when) are mixed in with the 2 trillion (that’s 12 zeros) other records on file since 9/11?! So what. It’s not even like those records have my name on them until I’m found to be connected with Joe. But instead of thinking of it this way, privacy advocates make the immediate assumption that because we’re closer to a world where the government could maybe someday potentially know something about me, my rights are automatically being violated. I disagree.
One more…
Track Internet Usage
The same thing that the NSA is doing for phone calls… I say we start working on an analogous approach to the web and email. Much harder problem, I know, but we should start. The Internet is evolving anyway. IPv6 (a new standard for how Internet addresses work which will require new protocols for web and email communication) is coming. Let’s get some Big Brother hooks into the protocols, so that given the right warrant, I might have the ability to begin to track you down if I suspect you’re planning on blowing something up.
Obviously, there are again privacy concerns, and I’m certainly not suggesting that they aren’t important. But we have to stop being reactionary every time there’s a step made toward better information access. I don’t want Big Brother breathing down my neck either — I wouldn’t want them listening to my calls or reading my email, for example — but mining connections to find patterns, then getting warrants if they need to act on those patterns feels perfectly legitimate (and important in fighting killers) to me.
Summary
Hire the hackers. Use their smarts and some cool technology to get the money and track down the bad guys. What’s not to like?
Technorati tags: war on terror, internet, cyber warfare, nsa
Breaking Away: Jeff Block's Blog 